> TEOTWAWKI Blog: Random thoughts on current events to close out the week

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12/22/12

Random thoughts on current events to close out the week

Mayan Doomsday
Well, we're all still here. Looks like we made it through this one, too. And it looks like no one did anything too crazy, either. Phewf!

Gun Control
Author and gun guru extraordinaire Larry Correia has an excellent opinion piece up on his blog that's a must read about the current gun control madness. Send to your friends who are uninformed and unsure of what to think. If you're from another country and feel like projecting the virtues of your forfeited gun rights onto the U.S., also a good read.

The solution offered by the NRA in their press conference - armed, trained personnel on school campuses - is a legitimate one, and essentially what I suggested in a post earlier this week. It's pretty obvious. The media will ignore this in their call for no more evil assault weapons with shoulder things that go up. If there needs to be extra funding organized to support something like this, we as a nation can figure it out. But if we are really, truly serious about protecting our schools, we get armed good guys on campuses. President Obama doesn't go anywhere without a small army of well armed guys at his side, yet it's somehow ridiculous to suggest putting armed good guys - police, contractors, volunteer civilians, licensed teachers - in schools.

Gallup polls suggest that the average American actually agrees with the NRA - 87% say that an increased police presence in schools would be either Very Effective or Somewhat Effective at reducing mass shootings at schools, versus 63% who said the same thing for an assault weapons ban. Increased funding for school security is a really easy deal to reach politically, and could be offset by donations, private groups and heck, if they needed to, some sort of tax. But I'm doubtful that's where the conversation will head, unless there's some kind of grass roots effort that makes it impossible for the media and Obama to ignore.

The Republicans control the House at present, so we'd need to see some Republicans, plus all of the Democrats voting for new gun control, for something to pass. I think there's a chance of some variety of magazine capacity ban or half-baked assault weapons ban, but I don't think there's a high probability of it this time around. But, we'll see how this one evolves...

The Fiscal Cliff
Then, in another example of our rapidly fracturing nation, there's the looming fiscal cliff. A few weeks ago, Obama was saying there was "zero chance" that we'd go over the cliff. Doesn't look like that's the case now. Spending cuts and increased taxes would be a double whammy on our barely growing economy, and could easily send us spiraling backwards. Business leaders aren't confident about the economy and neither am I.

The fiscal cliff and the rabid reaction to the Sandy Hook shootings have once again demonstrated how deeply, deeply divided the country is. There's almost no common ground...it's polar opposites on every issue. Neither side is able to have a civil discussion about important matters, finding common ground and coming to serious compromises. If we have so little in common and can agree on essentially nothing, then what kind of nation do we have?

Shortage on Everything
Given the foaming at the mouth on banning evil extra high capacity black rifles that we've seen, there's been a massive run on everything. I guesstimated we'd see exactly that and picked up a few magazines last weekend - some Glock mags, the Ruger 25 rounders and some extra scary extra full capacity AR-15 magazines. I should have bought these a while back, but didn't like the prices I was seeing and was waiting for deals. Luckily, I was fortunate to find everything in stock when I needed it - and at good prices, too.

If you didn't act fast and are still sitting on the sidelines, you're probably too late--at least for the next while. Today, a week later, every major online retailer I've visited has posted that they're back logged days to weeks in processing the never before seen volume of orders. Magazines over 10 rounds are sold out and gone. .223/5.56 is only available in expensive defensive, $1-per-round varieties.

Brick-n-mortar stores may still have some stock, but good luck.

My guess is this latest shortage will be with us at least through the output of the Biden panel and Congress fights over the issue - around through the middle of next year. You'll see lots of people - businesses and individuals - trying to cash in on the lack of supply. I'd be sensible in any purchases.

Obama once again proves to be history's greatest gun salesman.

If you're late to the gun ownership game, I would be hesitant to drop a huge chunk of change on an AR and a proper compliment of magazines. You might be looking at a lot of money to do so. At this point, you may have better luck with some of the not-as-well known and slightly more expensive rifles like the FN-FAL, H&K 91 and so on. Fewer average guys know these even exist, so you might be able to find 'em in stock more easily and not pay a ridiculous markup. But then again, if the anti-gun crowd has their way, you may never be able to buy any of these guns new in box again, so you'd have to make the determination on your own. A stripped lower AR-15 is the serialized/firearm part if you want to get in a bit cheaper than buying the full rifle at this point.

Things I wish I would have bought (on the off chance an AWB/magazine ban goes into effect)
  • A dozen more PMAGs...and I've got a bunch already
  • A half dozen more Glock magazines...and I've got a bunch already
  • A half dozen more Ruger BX-25 mags
  • An AR-10/.308 AR and mags
  • An AR-15 pistol
  • Another case or two of 5.56mm
All are "nice to haves," as I'm generally pretty squared away and don't feel generally under equipped...not to the point of needing to spend vast sums to obtain them. Additional case of 5.56mm would probably be at the top of the list in normal times, but it's unlikely that anyone is going after actual ammunition at this point, which makes that less of a concern. Under an AWB, the AR-10 could be replaced by a bolt gun, and the AR pistol is a niche-use item I've been wanting to play around with.

Time off for the Holidays
I'm going to try to step back from the blog, e-mail, etc. for the next few days for the holidays. If I'm slow to respond, that's why. There's loads in the archives if you're bored and want to do some browsing. Otherwise, enjoy the break!

Comments
Interested to hear from you guys - are you scouring the 'net and local gun shops for something in particular, or calmly sitting back and watching how this all unfolds? Any big holes you're regretting not filling earlier? What do you think the chances are of another assault weapons ban/magazine capacity ban? Reactions to the Larry Correia post? Lemme know.

17 comments :

  1. I found your blog and love it, started working down the arms list, got myself a handgun and was working on a conceal carry decision when this all went down. Decided to build a an AR15 but lowers were snatched up online, local guns hop had few and they sold out of the cheaper (not cheap) ones in a matter of days. They are limiting Pmags to two a customer. I put money down on an S&W M&P AR15 I had researched prior to all this. It 's price went up in one day so I jumped on it. AMmo is out or limited to two boxes a customer so I am just focusing on the mags and speed loaders/strips.

    Hoping the ammo doesn't become an issue, but the AR without the ammo is no value and buying ammo before I get it home (paying it off after Christmas) doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.

    That's the view here in Kentucky.

    Thanks for all the work, thoughts and energy you put in to this blog, it has been very helpful!

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    1. Yeah Louisville was bone dry on mags and guns. Ar and ak styles are mostly gone. I was able to pick up a CETME rifle. It was used and I know they have some bad reviews, but it might be hard to buy in the future so I said what the hell. I bought out the h&k g3 mags for only $4 a piece. I got eight and they said they had a bunch in the back. Local walmarts have very little rifle ammo. One had 20 round boxes of 5.56 for $11-12 a piece.
      I was looking to get a scoped rifle before all the awb talk came out, but I figure that hunting rifles, revolvers, and e like will be readily available even after any kind of awb. Trying to find 7.62x51 now and on the lookout for more mags that I can trade or sell at a future date. I keep my wife from beating me so far by telling her it is a sure investment now:) good luck out there!!!

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  2. Wasn't there an armed guard at Columbine? If you were to have armed guards in every school, would DHS be in charge of it? Could mean a lot of jobs for Americans. We could probably get TSA to handle it since the school buses would need to be protected as well... That would be cheaper than starting another government law enforcement agency.

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    1. UGLY ROOSTER

      I assume you are being sarcastic about TSA being anywhere near children.

      Drive, ride a horse or walk. Don't fly.
      Home school the little people.

      Memorize the Ten Commandments. Btw, can you quote them all from memory. I couldn't a week ago. Now I can. We will need the old time stuff even more in the says ahead. Sorry, off topic rant.

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  3. There was an an armed guard at Columbine. College's like Virginia Tech have their own armed police forces and in the case of the Lakewood WA mass shooting four police officers who were armed and had BP vests on were killed by an assailant who got away. I'm not saying we shouldn't have police at schools, but it wont make school shootings impossible. My niece's school keeps all the classroom doors closed and locked while classes are in session and the doors and locks are quite sturdy. That's probably the way to go.

    The shooter in CT was obviously quite ill and yet he had access to an arsenal worth of firearms. I keep coming back to that. Why weren't those guns locked up where he couldn't get to them? Keep them in a storage locker or a relatives house if you have to.

    The only gun I own that has any sort of removable magazine is a S&W Shield and I'm not worried about being "under gunned." I'm set up quite well to deal with any threat I might reasonably expect to encounter. Not, that I want to see other people's ability to do what they want taken away from them, but I do think the need for things like AR's and high cap. handguns is over rated.

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    1. Gun owners definitely need to take a step back and consider whether their firearms are adequately secured - and not just from thieves - and whether they should even have firearms in the home. Anyone with severely mentally ill, depressed, very troubled young people at home are probably going to be better off without firearms.

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  4. The only shortage I've hit is magazines, but mainly since I don't know if the ones I've ordered will be shipped or not. There are still a lot of 5.56 tracer rounds out there, the surplus stuff has about 90% failure to ignite tracer, so it's a thought to those who need it.
    Since if you need it bad enough, who cares if it's a tracer round.
    Otherwise, yes do sit back and enjoy 'the great panic'.

    Merry Christmas!

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  5. Of course it's not until after the panic that I come into some money. Eh, from what I've seen around here, it's mostly just ars being hard to get. So, 20 gauge shotgun or 38s/9mm semiautomatic hand gun? Mostly for home defense, although the semiauto could become my ccw when I can get my ccl, in the smaller cal so others in my house could use it. They're more recoil sensative than I.

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    1. Now is certainly not the time to be getting into ARs or similar from nothing. If you had an AR or two or four and wanted to pick up a couple extra magazines, you may be able to track some down. But, a new AR, plus a dozen mags is going to be tough.

      An AR is not the end-all-be-all of firearms. And while semi-auto, mag-fed rifles are the going to generally be the best choice for a combat role, a survivor can make do with what's at hand.

      If you're entirely new to firearms and with a looming ban on high cap magazines, I'd steer you towards a full sized handgun in a larger caliber than 9mm.

      I'd look at 1911s and especially .357 magnum revolvers like the 686, Ruger GP100, and Taurus equivalents. You're going to have zero supply shortages with either, neither would be effected by a magazine capacity ban, and both are certainly capable choices for self defense. Since a mag ban would limit the advantages of a high cap 9mm like a Glock, you might as well step up to something with more oomph.

      .357s can take .38 special for softer shooting practice or the recoil sensitive, too.

      Both are too big, IMO, for concealed carry, but a small "pocket piece" is going to be tough to learn to shoot on. Trigger, sights, recoil, etc. are all going to suck compared to a full sized handgun. The smaller you go, the more this will be the case.

      If you really want to do both in one shot, I'd look at the subcompact Glocks or Smith & Wessons.

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    2. One could also wait on the sidelines until the whole mess sorts itself out, then make their selection based on that. Certainly there's an amount of risk associated, but could be some payoff.

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  6. Like you Alex, I have been sitting back while all this craziness unfolds. I have been stockpiling just about everything since around 2005 anyway. I did however, get the wife's OK on a SF 60 rounder, on our common dime, which I've been eyeing for some time now. Even though I've been able stay on the sidelines as a buyer, I have been on the front lines as a salesman at www.primaryarms.com. We basically sold out of every stripped lower, complete rifle, centerfire ammo and mags this past wednesday. If you didn't buy last weekend through the middle of the week then you pretty much missed the boat. We sold over 1300 PMags, at our regular price, in less than an hour which was pretty incredible. We're just waiting for more stock to arrive. Personally, I will add more PMags or DSG teflons to my collection as well as some US Palm AK mags whenever they arrive. From a free-market guy, I understand why people are selling stuff waaaay above what they cost, but companies like Cheaper than Dirt, etc will never get business from me in the future...plus I hate paying tax and shipping, so that gouging sealed their fate as far as I'm concerned. I'd advise everyone reading this blog to contact their national level representatives, renew or join the NRA/GOA and hold onto your asses for a rough ride in the coming months. Hopefully the House republicans will NOT cave to knee-jerk legislation and hold to their principles. Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year!!

    Rug

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  7. I went down to GT Distributors in Austin last week just to get a feel for things. Every, and I mean every, AR15 on the wall had a "sold out" tag on it. For grins, I placed an order for a Colt LE6020....see what happens. After the shooting in CO, I decided to make an investment in new mags and a few other needed items. Got most of what I need, just thought I'd see if I could get lucky.

    The one glimmer of hope we have is the overthrow of the current Speaker of the House. I'm hearing rumors there's a coup brewing. Seems current leadership rolls over for the president. Maybe someone with backbone who can hold the fort on the 2ndA.

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  8. As to your comment at my place. Our local gunshop had the CMMG ones on Friday. I will buy and ship one to you at cost if you want. Email me at theotherryan@yahoo.com to talk more if you want.

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    1. Ryan -

      Impressed by the offer - you're a good man. I found some regular-capacity .22 AR magazines in stock and bought a reasonable amount. The mags are what I'd be worried about, the price was what I would expect to pay in normal market conditions, so I'm not going to complain.

      If you're interested, Palmetto State Armory has the Black Dog mags - both nylon and stainless - showing in stock. I've ordered from them in the past with good results. Joe Bob's also has them around.

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  9. I'm OK at least in terms of the $$$ I'm willing to toss into a conversion kit as opposed to say, spare AR parts. Snagged a couple spare CMMG mags and a few of the S&W MP 15/22 mags which are reputed to work in the conversion kits.

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  10. Probably a late comment on the school armed guards but I thought of putting dogs as well. A armed handler and a good trained dog might come across as less dangerous to parents. These dogs can detect a lot of smells and gun residue is one of them. Plus it is really hard to shoot with one of them hanging on your arm or throat.

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  11. The dog is a damn good idea, never thought of it but makes perfect sense, the problem I could foresee but is completely livable with is a lot of crotch sniffing during hunting season. Again damn fine idea though and I hope someone runs with it.

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