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11/7/14

November 2014 threat level?

After a long while of mostly doom, gloom and attacks on our liberties, some good news for a change...
  • The economy is doing better. Unemployment is at a 6-year low. Markets have reacted well to the elections and are generally doing fairly well--closed at a record today.
    • The drop in PM prices is tied directly to the market performance--gold and silver prices go up when markets are bad (flight to quality), and go down when markets are good.
  • With Republicans in control of Congress, our gun rights are protected for the next 2 years. Public sentiment is swinging away from gun control in recent polls (something like 60% oppose new gun control legislation), and the Dems have suffered for their brainless attacks on the 2nd Amendment.
    • Most of the "revolutionary" talk comes from the legit concern around the .gov trying to forcefully disarm the populace. Simply put, that's not going to happen in the immediate future.
  • We've got ISIS and a bunch of other Islamic extremists to worry about, but the scope of these conflicts is unlikely to escalate to the scale of the Iraq/Afghan wars.
Given the state of the world today, what's your threat level assessment? Lower than in previous years? Have we stabilized, even recovered a bit? Are we entering a period of relative peace and calm, at least relative to the post-9/11 world?

Or, is the guillotine just waiting to drop?

What do you think...and, are you doing anything differently?

14 comments :

  1. "The economy is doing better. Unemployment is at a 6-year low."

    Hey, great! Guess it's time to sell me you junk silver collection for...lemme see....10x face value?

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    1. Did I say I was selling PMs? Nope. Now would be a good time to buy.

      "While the number of jobs created came in under expectations, the headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, the lowest level since July 2008" Link

      But, you shouldn't bet it all on the world coming to an end. It might (heck, probably) not happen...if you only go the doom and gloom route, you can miss out on a lot...

      "U.S. stocks eked out marginal gains on Friday, ending the third straight week with gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs for the third consecutive day."
      Link

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    2. Good points!

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  2. I think keep a watchful eye on mother Russia
    There up to something.

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    1. Mother Russia and China are ALWAYS up to something. I was shocked Ukraine didn't escalate further.

      My big concern has always been war between nuclear powers. There are some less than stable people/nations with nukes out there at this point, and nukes are only going to continue to proliferate.

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    2. The BRICS and "former" USSR allies are all prepping for war right now. (BRICS) Russia, China, Cuba, 99% of Latin America, Africa (ANC), North Korea, the Eastern Bloc countries, even Hungary and the Stans. It's just a matter of time.

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  3. In Texas the new Governor elect said he would sign an open carry bill if it came across his desk.

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    1. There's no open carry in the great state of Texas? Bwaaa???

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    2. Yes, but only for long guns. This goes all the way back to reconstruction when the new Texas constitution was written. It allowed for the regulation of handguns but not long gun. Damn carpetbaggers!! The Texas constitution does restrict this authority to the state so you do not have to worry about cities and counties passing local law concerning firearms. Texas is still the best place to be though!!!!

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    3. Don't forget the Gunshine State. IIRC they have the most concealed carriers.

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  4. I think these "Lone Wolf" attacks are a legitimate threat. Stay aware of your surroundings, and pack if you can!

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  5. you don't really believe those unemployment numbers do you?
    my threat level? super nova
    threats: derivatives, russia, isis, lone wolf idiots, ferguson type crap but the biggest is the impending immigration executive order. we just traded one bunch of traitors for another. new york and conn may take their re-elections as consent to confiscate guns as well. every body is taking a short honeymoon but the hair triggers are still set as far as i see. its 1859 all over again. hopefully that gives us another year to prep, but they didn't have the net back then,lol.

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  6. I am with riverrider. When things are looking up, its probably getting close to the time to batten down the hatches!

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  7. Hey Wolf, I have been actively reading and enjoying your blog for some time.

    I agree that one must focus more on a positive energy, but we always have to be Leary of the negative energy growing in this nation.

    As far as the economic numbers that you site, as an Interest Rate Derivatives trader on the CME for over 12 years now- My threat level is 4th quarter 2007 level- The economy cheerleaders of CNBC. Fox Business, and Bloomberg are again completely ignoring the risk exposure out there, and since most people do not understand, everyone is beginning to believe that things are better...Fall of 2008 came less than a year later

    Don't be fooled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Job growth and Unemployment numbers. I am sure that most of the readers of this blog know that already- But realize that CPI, PPI, Construction Spending, PMI, ,and manufacturing numbers (Chicago PMI, NY Manu Number, Philll Fed, etc) have all be manipulated in the past four months leading to this pasts weeks election just like they were in 2012. Expect revisions downward over the next 5 months, but realize that part time hiring of big box retail stores for the holiday season will make these jobs numbers continue to look good through the end of the year.

    Most understand that the unemployment rate is closer to 9-10%. The cost for a family to go to the movies, breakfast joint, or out to dinner, has almost doubled in the last 6 years. The costs of energy and food are never factored into the numbers released by the government. Certainly lower gas prices help everyone, but remember- we are still at a 40-50% premium on prices today over those of 6 years ago.

    As far as the Stock Market goes, this is what happens when Banking buddies transfer bad debt from one book to another that allows banks to lever up in the stock market. If you have benefited from this rally on the smallest volume if history, be vigilant in hedging yourself in the future. The market could easily continue to climb towards 20k (Primarily because there is no other place to find yield on money), but understand that there is major downside risk.

    The political landscape will continue to divide the people of this great nation. Even with more and more waking up to the deception of Washington, far too many still believe the lies from the establishment politicians. The worst president since Woodrow Wilson will continue to pull the blinds of propaganda over the eyes of the electorate and with the media behind him- continue to take the country in the wrong direction.

    Now is the time to look for land, find a reliable water source like a stream, pond , or dig a well. One must find places in your budget for purchases of commodities that are relatively available and priced fairly now...Long term storage materials and Food, Guns if you need them, Bullets, emergency prep gear, tools, camping gear, etc...the things that we can get our hands on now ...

    At a ratio of 74/1
    Silver seems to be a very good buy right now under $16. Gold under $1200/oz although still pricy, its not a bad idea to have some of the cash in your bank account transferred into some real tangible assets.

    There is still downside to these bullion prices as the rest of the global economy continues to shrink and engage in new rounds of QE. This makes the perceived fiat dollar stronger leading to lower commodity prices.- One unique fact to look at- although paper prices are getting hammered in these markets- physical consolidation of gold, silver, platinum, and copper are at all time highs.- it is in all of our best interests, if finances allow- to pick some up.

    We all have to Believe in the spirit of a brighter future, but always be prepared for the darker time

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